2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season

While we have already reached two named storms, today marks the official start of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season.  It's go time in my eyes, as this is by far my favorite season in weather!  Wherever they strike the US, Caribbean, Bahamas, Mexico, etc, I'll be there this season within reason of course.  I have a weird feeling I'll get into a couple landfalls this year, but we'll see?  I already took the worst (northern eyewall) of Tropical Storm Beryl in Amelia Island, FL.  According to Chris Landsea (NHC), TS Beryl was the strongest tropical or subtropical cyclone landfall on record in the U.S. prior to June 1st.  I personally never experienced hurricane conditions, but the winds gusted well into the 60's.  Pretty amazing for May!

Here is the plan for the coming week or two...

1)  Start to edit survivor video I shot this January from the 1935 "Labor Day" Hurricane which devastated parts of the Florida Keys.  The strongest hurricane to ever strike the US in recorded time.  Some of this video is beyond amazing and I feel incredibly lucky to have met these survivors!  Full story soon...

2)  Recap of my Tropical Storm Beryl chase and my trip to Texas with Mark Sudduth from hurricanetrack.com.  Worked on the NOAA Sentinel and successfully launched HURR-B.  I will continue to work with Mark this season, as we have lots of great projects planned...

3)  Really start getting into several historical hurricane books I have bought.  I'll provide a list of the books I plan on reading and eventually provide reviews for each book I read this season.  Should be informative and fun!

4)  Start to work on my new website, as I'm going to transition from a blog to a full website.  It will obviously take some work/time (not really sure what I'm doing?  lol), but I'll get it done as soon as possible...

5)  Did I mention this is my favorite season in weather?  Lol!  Like I said, it's GO TIME, as I'm ready to go full force into the tropics!

*Like I stated earlier in May, I'm not going to get into a seasonal forecast this year.  However, for fun, here are my numbers.  I do agree with the general consensus of lower overall numbers and higher impact.  Again, that won't be hard considering the last few years.  Pure statistics tell you that...

- 12 named storms
- 3 landfalling storms  (One already with TS Beryl)
- Watch for "homegrown" activity and rapid feedback before landfall

Tropical Storm Alberto

Tropical Storm Alberto has developed off the South Carolina coast.  While the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1st, Alberto really has no bearing on the upcoming season, as these small low pressure centers are fairly common this time of year.  Getting one to become purely warm cored is not very common, but you see hybrids all the time.  You'll get development off stalled/slowly moving fronts in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico.  One thing is for sure, Alberto has been ventilated by the eastward moving trough this morning/early afternoon...

Tropical Storm Alberto should continue to slowly drift to the southwest and will eventually turn back to the north/northeast over the next 48 hours.  Alberto could strengthen a little, but I don't expect any major intensification, even though I'll be the first to say these tiny storms are tricky.  Keep in mind that Alberto could die almost as fast as it formed.  The smallest thing can have a major effect on a tropical cyclone, especially when it's a tiny storm like Albeto.  It's in a marginal environment when looking at the trifecta:  wind shear, dry air, and SST's.  At worst, expect some gusty winds and heavy rain along the SC/NC coastlines before the next trough "grabs" Alberto and takes him out to sea Tuesday/Wednesday...

From CIMSS:  http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/120519_suomi_npp_viirs_vis_ir_93L_anim.gif

Time To Get Started...

Today was the official start of the EPAC hurricane season, and we already have Tropical Storm Aletta.  Maximum sustained winds are 45mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003mb.  Aletta is forecasted to stay weak, but it's still something to look at, as we are entering my favorite time of year weather-wise.  June 1st will be here before you know it...

As many of you already know, I'll be working with hurricanetrack.com again this season.  I'm very excited, as we have many cool projects in store this year.  I'm meeting up with Mark Sudduth on Monday to head out on an informative trip to Houston, TX.  This is where we'll test projects like HURR-B and the NOAA Sentinel, which is essential before the season starts.  I'll updated daily throughout the trip and I'll have more posts as we get closer to Monday.  For Mark's write up on the upcoming trip, check out hurricanetrack.com...

I will be blogging a lot more for both my website and hurricanetrack.com throughout the 2012 hurricane season.  I'm actually in the process of updating hurricanechaser.net from a blog to a full storm chase/forecasting/historical weather website.  It will take some time of course, but it's in the works...

On a quick side note regarding the upcoming 2012 Atlantic hurricane season, I'm going to stay away from a detailed seasonal forecast this year.  We all know seasonal forecasts are typically poor at best, so I'm going to keep things simple.  I'll release a short seasonal write up on June 1st...

I will say looking at what I feel are the best analogs for this upcoming season, I agree with the general consensus of much lower overall numbers this year.  At the same time, these analogs hint at more landfalls, which is not going to be tough to beat.  The United States hasn't been hit by a major hurricane since Wilma in 2005.  Hurricane Irene was the first hurricane to make landfall in the US since Ike in 2008.  Why do I bring this up?  Statistically, we are due regardless of what the analogs say.  Also, years like 1992/1935 should always provide a stark reminder that it's about IMPACT and not the overall numbers.  Hard to believe this season (August 24th) is the 20 year anniversary of Hurricane Andrew...

Hurricane Season 2012 Trailer - Jesse Vinturella

Cooperton, OK Large Tornado Video

While the GoPro picked up on the tornado right away, in reality it took me about 5-10 seconds to realize what was in front of me. We were inching forward in heavy rain ("car wash rain"), knowing the circulation was in front of us. Then all of a sudden it opened up, and boom, large tornado.

I decided to show the raw video to give everyone a more realistic view into the chase. Keep in mind this large tornado was embedded in rain. Not easy to see/chase at all! Also, this was Joel's first tornado. And yes, I know I said, "that's a large tornado" way too many times... Sorry! lol

HURRICANECHASER.NET

©Copyright Greg Nordstrom 2012

Friday the 13th Cooperton, OK Large Tornado (4/13/12)

4/13/12 - Friday the 13th Strikes Again!

A large tornado passes in front of myself/Joel Young about 2-3 miles south of Cooperton, OK on highway 54 around 7:30pm. Friday the 13th strikes again! (4/13/12) ©GregNordstrom 2012

19 Years Ago Tonight

19 years ago tonight my interest in weather became a passion! The pressure dropped to 28.53" at my house in Arlington, VA. I'll never forget the "Superstorm" of 1993 as long as I live!

My blog post last year on the 18 year anniversary:

The 1993 "Superstorm" produced 12 foot storm surges in western Florida (Apalachee Bay), including 11 tornadoes (3 at F2 strength)! Also, it produced a derecho in Cuba (gusts to 130mph)! It was a beast of a storm, one of the strongest mid-latitude traveling cyclones ever! Plus, I'm not even talking about the record snowfalls/pressure readings it produced in the Deep South and all along the East Coast... I'm pretty sure I'm right about this, but at one point, every county in Alabama was under a blizzard warning. That won't happen again for a long long time! Here are two great videos from the weather channel... Enjoy!

1993 "Superstorm" Part: 1 - TWC

1993 "Superstorm" Part: 2 - TWC

The Big Picture Blog

Here are some images from the tornado outbreak across the Midwest/South on February 29th (Leap Year) and March 2nd. It also includes some amazing before and after shots from the Japanese tsunami. Like always, I highly recommend 'The Big Picture' blog if you haven't checked it out yet. Enjoy!

Tornadoes Rip Through the Midwest and South

Japanese tsunami pictures: before and after